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Climate change challenge

Link to Case Study results here

In this case study region, spruce and beech are the predominant species. The promotion of Norway spruce at the expenses of European beech and other deciduous tree species in the past resulted in large areas stocked with Norway spruce outside its potential natural distribution. Beside traditional forest growth predictions little effort has been spend on climate changed driven forest growth in the Black Forest region. In the region climate change induced droughts threaten Norway spruce plantations directly and indirectly via insect calamities, especially those outside the natural Norway spruce distribution. In addition to droughts, storms are the major disturbance regime in the region.




Response to the challenge

Baden-Baden is a famous ‘cure’ centre in Europe with a high-level of tourism, which is significant for the local economy. Baden-Baden is also an attractive location for wealthy retired people and has the highest real estate prices in Germany. Recreation is therefore one of the most important functions of the forests. In these areas, the aim is to find the balance between tourism and economic aspects of forest management.  For most of the public forest areas (community and state) in the case-study an adaptation to the existing multifunctional close-to-nature forestry to climate change is the major challenge. In the eastern part of the case-study, economic aspects play an important role for the management of a large private forest with the State as an important shareholder.


Who will carry on the research and what models are applied

Forest growth predictions by combining tree-and stand-level models will be conducted using the empirical growth models W+ and BWinPro. To address climate change induced droughts, climate scenarios will be considered and a new bark beetle module will be developed and implemented. An empirical storm damage model will depict damage probabilities on a single tree level. A biome shift model for major tree species has been developed and used to improve the evaluation of future tree-species suitability. Furthermore, indices that can be derived from LandClim model outputs have to be developed to be able to evaluate forest management alternatives in terms of their provision of Ecosystem goods and services such as timber production and biodiversity.


This case study is carried out by Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Germany and the contact persons are Alfons Bieling (alfons.bieling(at), Marc Hanewinkel (marc.Hanewinkel(at) Jürgen Zell (juergen.zell(at)


Where the case study is situated, who owns the land

Urban district Baden-Baden and rural district Rastatt have a total area of 83,000 ha. Communities are holding 60% of the forest area, followed by state (24%) and private owners (16%). The case study region Black Forest will be represented by the administrative districts Rastatt and Baden‑Baden situated in the state of Baden‑Württemberg, Germany.

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