by: Ulla Vänttinen
Tatarinov, F.A., Cienciala, E., Vopenka, P., Avilov, V., 2011. Effect of climate change and nitrogen deposition on central-European forests: Regional-scale simulation for South Bohemia. Forest Ecology and Management, Article in Press
The simulation of forest production until 2100 under different environmental scenarios and current management practices was performed using a process-based model BIOME-BGC previously parameterized for the main Central-European tree species: spruce, pine, beech and oak and adapted to include forest management practices. Climatic scenario HadCM3 used in the simulations was taken from the IPCC database created within the 3rd Assessment Report. It was combined with a scenario of CO2 concentration development and a scenario of N deposition. The control scenario considered no changes of climatic characteristics, CO2 concentration and N deposition. Simulation experiment was performed for the test region - South Bohemia - using a 1 km × 1 km grid. The actual data on the regional forest cover were aggregated for each grid cell in such a way that each cell represented an even-aged single-dominant species stand or non-forested area, and a standard management scenario depending on the stand age and species was applied to each cell. The effect of environmental variables was estimated as the difference of simulated carbon pools and fluxes in 2050 under environmental changes and under control scenario. The model simulation for the period to 2050 with only climate change under constant CO2 concentration and N deposition indicated a small decrease of NPP (median values by species reached -0.9 to -1.7% for different species), NBP (-0.3 to -1.7%) and vegetation carbon (-0.3 to -0.7%), whereas soil C slightly increased. Separate increase of N deposition gave small positive effect on carbon pools (0.8-2.9% for wood C and about 0.5% for soil C) and more expressed effect on carbon fluxes (1.8-4.3% for NPP and 1.0-9.7% for NBP). Separate increase of CO2 concentration lead to 0.6-2.4% increase of wood C pool and 0.1-0.5% increase of soil C. The positive effects of CO2 concentration and N deposition were more pronounced for coniferous than for deciduous stands. Replacement of 0.5% of coniferous plantations every year by natural broadleaved stands evoked 10.5% of increase of wood carbon pool due to higher wood density of beech and oak compared to spruce and pine, but slightly decreased soil and litter carbon pools. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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