 | Modelling and simulating decision making in MOTIVE
| 757.5KB | 21.04.2010 | Alfons Bieling | WP4_documents | |
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| Modelling and simulating decision making in MOTIVE
| 757.5KB | 21.04.2010 | Alfons Bieling | WP4_documents | |
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 | Alan Bragg's Masters Thesis (Edinburgh Univ.)
| 2.72MB | 16.09.2012 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| Risk Management in British forestry with special emphasis on Picea sitchensis, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus spp.
In the course of climate change it is getting more and more important to develop strategies to adapt Europe's forests for the prevention of heavy damages. For this, research was intensified during the last years.
The aim of this scientific work is to find the most suitable Forest Management
Alternative (FMA) for British forests, considering Close-to-nature forestry,
Combined-objective forestry, Intensive-even aged forestry and Wood-biomass production. The purpose is to minimize the risk of disturbances, namely wind, fire, deer, Hylobius abietis, Elatobium abietinum, colytidae, Heterobasidion annosum, Armillaria spp. and Dotistroma septosporum, to four of Britain’s main tree species: Picea sitchensis, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus spp. A Multi-Criteria-Risk-Analysis (MCRA) was performed for each country of Great Britain (Wales, Scotland and England). This MCRA is part of a European project, called “MOdels for adapTIVE forest management” (MOTIVE Commission 2009).
Additionally, a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) was conducted to get an idea about the value of different forest types.
To perform the MCRA it was necessary to collect information about the main
disturbances of each considered tree species. This information contains their
occurrence, level of damage, development under a certain management strategy and
how they will react under a changing climate. Collected data were organised in
spreadsheets. The interpretation was done with a decision support tool, called
Decision Lab (Visual Decision Inc. 1999).
For the CBA, only already existing data was used. It was collected from different
sources and standardized with the capitalized value, containing a discount rate 1% and 3.5% for two separate presumptions about how natural resources like forests should be discounted.
For all considered species in each country of Great Britain, the MCRA indicates that Close-to-nature forestry is the best alternative to prevent risks. As the findings of the
MCRA are very general and the interpretation of the results needs to be done carefully, Close-to-nature forestry should not generally be seen as the less risky management system. For example, the wind exposed sites of the Scottish Highlands, especially if spruces are planted, need to be managed with a system that implies shorter rotations to minimize the risk.
Regarding only the monetary values of the costs and benefits, Intensive-even aged forestry is more favourable considering a discount rate of 1%. With 3.5% Close-tonature is on the top rank, mainly because of its low establishment costs. By taking the non-market values like recreation into account, the outcome supports Close-to-nature
forestry for both discount rates.
Keywords: Multi-Criteria-Risk-Analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Risk Management,
Climate Change, Decision Support Tool, Silviculture, Forest Protection | 1.62MB | 18.11.2010 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| Case Study Questionnaire for MCRA
A questionnaire for use in assessing the consequences of management action on hazard impact. This is needed as part of the MCRA in each Case Stusy Area. It probably needs translation into different languages for use with stakeholders. | 98KB | 04.02.2011 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| Draft Report on abiotic and biotic risks for each case study area
Draft version of deliverable D4.1 for editing and checking | 6.81MB | 20.03.2011 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| 3rd Draft of D4.1
| 10.2MB | 06.04.2011 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| Report On Abiotic and Biotic Risks: Case Study Areas: Deliverable 4.1
This report first provides an overview and description of the key abiotic and biotic hazards affecting European forests. We then discuss the particular hazards affecting each case study area with a description of the nature of the hazard, the impact of the hazard and how these hazards are managed. Accompanying the discussion is a table of the main hazards affecting the key tree species in each case study area, which outlines the beneficial or detrimental response of the hazard to different site and silvicultural factors, and the economic, environmental and social impacts of the hazard on the forest. In addition, there is a list of any modelling tools that are available to evaluate the risk from each hazard. | 2.68MB | 08.04.2011 | Barry Gardiner | WP4_documents | |
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| motive D 3.2. draft 4 july
| 7.29MB | 04.07.2011 | Gert-Jan Nabuurs | WP3_documents | |
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| D 3.2/3.3 Tested model features concerning adaptive
| 6.9MB | 31.10.2011 | Alfons Bieling | WP3_documents | |
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| Motive_D_31
| 506.5KB | 07.12.2009 | | WP3_documents | |
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 | Results_Questionnaires_risks_and_issues_per_case
| 35KB | 07.12.2009 | | WP3_documents | |
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| Motive D 31 22 June tracks UV
| 9.15MB | 22.06.2010 | Ulla Vänttinen | WP3_documents | |
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| D 3.1. final deliverable
| 9.09MB | 23.06.2010 | Gert-Jan Nabuurs | WP3_documents | |
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| D3.1. final deliverable word 97
| 11.38MB | 25.06.2010 | Gert-Jan Nabuurs | WP3_documents | |
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| Deliverable D 3.1 edited
Final version edited by the co-ordinator | 14.8MB | 01.07.2010 | Alfons Bieling | WP3_documents | |
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| D 3.1_FINAL
MOTIVE seeks to develop and evaluate strategies that can adapt forest management practices to balance multiple objectives under changing environmental conditions. The evaluation of different adaptive management systems will take place within a scenario analysis and a regional landscape framework.
This report gives the case study area descriptions, the research questions per case, and the desired model development. | 7.2MB | 02.07.2010 | Alfons Bieling | WP3_documents | |
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| D2.1 Drivers of Change_version 2
Multifunctional and sustainable forest management remains the central backbone of the EU policy papers.
Several directions for changes are identified concerning the more intensive use of the forest resource including the following: promotion of increased use of forest biomass for energy generation, afforestation, encouraging the use of wood and other forest products, and encourage investments in forests inter alia. Therefore the continuation of the trend towards an increase in European forest area and in the volume harvested is anticipated. In the short run important changes are expected via the evolution of globalization of timber market after the crisis and depending on the Russian position regarding timber exports; the implementation of European regulation aiming at reducing the trade of illegal logging; the expected forest legally binding agreement and the expected decisions after the ministerial conference in Oslo in June 2011.
The main durable change to be retained is the evolution towards open, participatory processes to define the goals of forest management and the increasing concern over biodiversity and forest certification. The place granted to present and future societal needs in the vision of multifunctional forestry challenges the top-down, regulatory style of formulating the forest management goals. Thus participation, coordination with other sectors, expression of interests (present and future societal needs) and use of communication and educational means are the main means to implement the vision of long–term, multifunctional forestry.
| 949.4KB | 18.04.2011 | Alfons Bieling | WP2_documents | |
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| D2.3 Trends in Growth and Productivity of European Forests
Trends in growth and productivity of European forests are studied. A retrospective analysis of height growth across Europe over the twentieth century found positive trends, which were substantiated by a literature review. The review addresses both observed (20th century) and projected (21st century) trends and discusses underlying causes and uncertainties. A main focus of this report is on the tree species Norway spruce, Scots pine and European beech. | 1.78MB | 10.06.2011 | Alfons Bieling | WP2_documents | |
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| D 2.5 Potential Impact and Uncertainties of Climate Change
| 453.16KB | 31.10.2011 | Alfons Bieling | WP2_documents | |
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| Deliverable 2.4: Report on projected species and productivity shifts
| 17.36MB | 27.01.2012 | Alfons Bieling | WP2_documents | |
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| D2.2 Climate and Land Use Data
This document provides both an overview of available climate and land use change data over Europe, and it summarizes the methods used for scaling climate data from regional climate model (RCM) output to fins spatial resolution (1km and 100m). | 4.66MB | 16.11.2010 | Alfons Bieling | WP2_documents | |
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 | brussels science - policy meeting oct 2011
| 7.46MB | 25.10.2011 | Gert-Jan Nabuurs | Internal PR and presentations | |
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| Updated General Presentation
| 3.42MB | 23.11.2011 | Pavel Stoev | Internal PR and presentations | |
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| Presentation to decision makers in the EEA mtg 8 Sept 2011
EEA National contact points meeting on Forests on 8 Sept 2011 | 7.08MB | 23.11.2011 | Ulla Vänttinen | Internal PR and presentations | |
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